I will use music to illustrate my point here, but this applies to every form of creative output. Including business.

For the past 5 years or so, a primary indication of “good” music has been if it sounds “real”

Think of the emergence of indie rock, shoegaze, pop rap -

The big shift was that teenagers could produce music that sounded similar to music recorded in a studio 10 years ago, from their bedrooms.

This completely levelled the playing field. Distribution became the new important thing. When everybody could create high quality music, having a record deal and access to equipment was no longer a requirement.

Hence the era of artists becoming influencers.

The market no longer rewarded real creativity. It rewarded, for the most part, how accurate you could sound to what’s trending right now.

If you could put a little spin on the current sound, and make it sound legit, you are now a legit musician.

The mark for how “good” AI music sounds is how “real” it sounds. Nobody cares that the AI Drake song is good, they care that it actually sounds like Drake. That’s what’s impressive.

This is a horrible way to determine “good” music.

So, fast forward 5 years from now, when everybody can create a full high quality original song from a single sentence prompt -

How do we determine if it’s “good?”

AI music sounding “real” just means it sounds like what you’re used to. So what if you’re used to AI? What if 80% of the music you listen to is AI?

Does that mean to make real music sound real, you need to make it sound AI? Because based on the current logic, that’s the conclusion.

So -

What happens when whether a song sounds “real” or not doesn’t determine whether it’s “good?”

Well, my friend - we get back to creativity.

Original ideas, unique sounds, and in depth knowledge of the art form is what matters.

We’ll go back to sampling. To analog synths that can’t be replicated by computers. We’ll sit in Japanese listening bars and smoke cigarettes and talk not about “the good ol days of when music sounded good,” but how excited we are for the future of the art.

If you and another musician can produce the same QUALITY of output at the click of a button, the idea behind that output matters the most.

“Old school” musicians will be left in the dust. What happened to the people who said “I’m not using the printing press! I’m doing it the REAL way!”

It will be the ones who use the tools, but understand the actual nuance behind the craft in order to prompt the outputs, who win.

Yes, a small subset of the population will still want “real” music, with their Japanese salvaged denim and hand spun pottery, but most people won’t care.

Look at the movies playing right now. Pedro Pascal is in fucking 4 of them. They may as well be AI generated. Nobody cares about the depth of art or expertise behind it. They care that it looks interesting and will keep them entertained.

Yes, you and I will go see the Chris Nolan movies shot on film, but most won’t. He will need to self fund the projects. George Lucas hand to self fund The Empire Strikes Back.

But Edgar Wright And Guy Ritchie, directors who can bleed their unique approach all over the AI prompt box?

I hope you see the point I’m getting at here.

The cream will rise to the top. We will go back to true art. Musicians will need to actually understand music. Graphic designers will need to actually understand negative space and geometry.

NAUNCE will be rewarded once again.

…

This is an optimistic viewpoint on the future. I don’t think it will look this great. I think it will be how it has been for the past 30 years - frogs not knowing they’re in boiling water.

But for those of us who understand that Man’s great pursuit is one of mastery. Who understand we haven’t had a great man since, what, Solzhenitsyn?

Those of us who are not nihilistic, who will not be the ones who say the internet is going to die and streaming services aren’t sustainable -

We will win. And we will win together.

In the meantime -

Read great books, surround yourself with great people, and do really, really great work. The best that you can. Even if it takes a lifetime

– RL